N.O.A.A. PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Residents in Hurricane Prone Areas Urged to Make Preparations
The Business Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration today announced to America and its neighbors throughout the north Atlantic region that a very active hurricane season is looming, and encouraged individuals to make preparations to better protect their lives and livelihoods. May 21-27 is Countrywide Hurricane Preparedness Week.
During a news conference at NOAA's Countrywide Hurricane Center, Deputy Secretary of Business David A. Sampson noted, "Preparation is the key message that President Bush wants to convey during Countrywide Hurricane Preparedness Week. The impact from these storms extends well beyond coastal areas so it is vital that residents in hurricane prone areas get ready in advance of the hurricane season."
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, N.O.A.A. is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with 8 to ten becoming hurricanes, of which 4 to 6 could become 'major' hurricanes of Category three strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of Business for oceans and atmosphere and N.O.A.A. administrator.
On average, the north Atlantic hurricane season produces eleven named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. In 2005, the Atlantic hurricane season contained a record 28 storms, including 15 hurricanes. 7 of these hurricanes were considered "major," of which a record 4 hit the United States. "Although N.O.A.A. is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the U.S. is high," added Lautenbacher.
Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.
This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, 9 of the last eleven hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only 2 below-normal seasons during the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002.
With neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected across the equatorial Pacific during the next 3 to 6 months, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center scientists say that neither El Niño nor La Niña will likely be a factor in this year's hurricane season.
"Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same: prepare, prepare, prepare," said Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's Countrywide Hurricane Center. "One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season."
The north Atlantic hurricane season runs from June one through November 30. N.O.A.A. will issue a mid-season update in early August just prior to the normal August through October peak in activity.
The north Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook is a product of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Countrywide Hurricane Center, and Hurricane Research Division. NOAA's Countrywide Hurricane Center has hurricane forecasting responsibilities for the north Atlantic as well as the east Pacific regions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and Countrywide safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), N.O.A.A. is working with our federal partners and in excess of 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global earth observation network that is as integrated as the planet it observes.
On the Web:
NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov
NOAA's North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Countrywide Hurricane Preparedness Week: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare
NOAA's Countrywide Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
N.O.A.A. Hurricane Research: http://www.research.noaa.gov
N.O.A.A. GFDL: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov
